{"id":3749,"date":"2021-11-18T09:00:12","date_gmt":"2021-11-18T07:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/?p=3749"},"modified":"2023-03-17T19:15:02","modified_gmt":"2023-03-17T17:15:02","slug":"relevant-forecasting-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/relevant-forecasting-data\/","title":{"rendered":"How Much Data Do You Need to Make Reliable Delivery Predictions?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"cf-14869-area-150045\"><\/div>\n<p>There are some questions that I get asked pretty much every single day. How much data do we need to make reliable delivery predictions? What if we don&#8217;t currently have any historical data? What if we have plenty of data, <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">but we don\u2019t trust it<\/span>? How do we choose the rolling window of data to base our delivery predictions on?<\/p>\n<p>If I had a dollar for every time someone asked me these questions, then I could afford to take my entire family on a month-long, all-inclusive, five-star tropical vacation. Did I mention that I have a large family?<\/p>\n<p>But, since these questions won\u2019t pay for my bills (or my dream vacation), I will focus my attention on bringing some more clarity around the topic and helping you identify the dataset you have to use when making probabilistic forecasts\u2026 while still dreaming of margaritas on the beach. <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And I adore margaritas! <\/span><\/p>\n<h2>How Much Data Do You Need to Provide Accurate Delivery Forecasts?<\/h2>\n<p>The fact that probabilistic forecasts are based on your past performance doesn\u2019t mean that you need a ton of data in order to come up with reliable delivery predictions. Whether you have been collecting data from the very beginning of your board creation, or you are just <a href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/commitments-for-new-teams\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">getting started with new teams<\/a>, this is beside the point.<\/p>\n<p>The main prerequisite of producing reliable forecasts is to maintain a <a href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/stable-delivery-system\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">stable delivery system<\/a>. Stable systems are delivery systems that are optimized for predictability. If your delivery system is optimized for predictability, then you won\u2019t actually need any more than 20 or 30 completed items to come up with accurate results. It\u2019s not about quantity &#8211; it\u2019s all about taking control of your management practices and ensuring you deliver results in a consistent manner.<\/p>\n<p>The accuracy of your forecasts strongly depends on the stability of your system. In fact, if you don\u2019t maintain a stable system, nothing will work. There will be no approach that can give you a reliable delivery prediction.<\/p>\n<p>With that in mind (assuming you have a stable system in place), to be able to make reliable forecasts, you will need to use relevant data. So, how do you distinguish relevant from irrelevant data?<\/p>\n<p><em>If your delivery system doesn\u2019t produce the results you are hoping for and you\u2019d like to explore the proven roadmap to optimize your workflows for predictability, I\u2019d be thrilled to welcome you to our <a href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/sustainable-predictability\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sustainable Predictability<\/a> program!<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>How to Distinguish Relevant From Irrelevant Data?<\/h2>\n<p>If you\u2019ve recently changed your workflow, introduced new process policies, if there are new team members joining the team or leaving the team, then you have to observe how these changes affect the shape of your cycle time-frequency distribution, so that you can separate relevant from irrelevant data.<\/p>\n<p>This is where the <a href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/cycle-time-histogram\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cycle Time Histogram<\/a> and more precisely, the Cycle Time Average Trends widget, comes in handy. Using this tool, you can observe any changes to your system design or the working practices by tracking how the <a href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/thin-tailed-vs-fat-tailed-distribution\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">mean trends<\/a> have developed over time.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-cycle-time-averages.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3750\" src=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-cycle-time-averages.png\" alt=\"Relevant forecasting data - Cycle Time Averages\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1250\" srcset=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-cycle-time-averages.png 1999w, https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-cycle-time-averages-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-cycle-time-averages-1024x640.png 1024w, https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-cycle-time-averages-768x480.png 768w, https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-cycle-time-averages-1536x960.png 1536w, https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-cycle-time-averages-585x366.png 585w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>If there are discontinuities, usually associated with system design changes (hopefully with the intention to improve the predictability of the delivery system), then you should only use your data up to the point where the mean cycle time remains consistent.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, we want a cycle time histogram that reflects the current conditions and the capability of the team, unpolluted with older data that is no longer relevant.<\/p>\n<p>Analyzing the example above, we only want to use the data from the beginning of August onwards. At exactly that time, the team introduced a <a href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/wizards-use-case\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">simple pull strategy that immensely improved the predictability of their delivery workflow<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The data prior to August 2021 is not relevant anymore. It doesn\u2019t represent the current system design of this team and as such, it shouldn\u2019t be used as a base of your delivery predictions.<\/p>\n<div class=\"cf-14869-area-150047\"><\/div>\n<h2>What if You Don\u2019t Have Data That Reflects Your Future Conditions?<\/h2>\n<p>Let\u2019s say that you need to <a href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/reliable-delivery-commitments\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">forecast the delivery date of a project<\/a> that takes place in December when everyone is taking some well-deserved time off for the holidays, but you don\u2019t have data that accounts for that situation. Probably, it wouldn\u2019t be relevant to go back in time and use the data from December the previous year &#8211; chances are, your current setup has changed significantly since then.<\/p>\n<p>If that\u2019s the case, the best you can do is to scale down your performance data accordingly. Let\u2019s say that you know everyone will be off in the last week of the month. You can then assume that reducing your delivery rate for the month by 30% would be reasonable.<\/p>\n<p>This is where the scale factor in <a href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/monte-carlo-simulation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Monte Carlo<\/a> comes into play.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-monte-carlo-scale-factor.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3751\" src=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-monte-carlo-scale-factor.png\" alt=\"Relevant forecasting data - Monte Carlo - Scale Factor\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1250\" srcset=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-monte-carlo-scale-factor.png 1999w, https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-monte-carlo-scale-factor-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-monte-carlo-scale-factor-1024x640.png 1024w, https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-monte-carlo-scale-factor-768x480.png 768w, https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-monte-carlo-scale-factor-1536x960.png 1536w, https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data-monte-carlo-scale-factor-585x366.png 585w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The scale factor is used for high uncertainty scenarios where you expect drastic changes in the <a href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/kanban-throughput\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">throughput<\/a> of the system, but you don&#8217;t have past performance data to account for that (public holidays, someone is about to leave\/join the team, etc).<\/p>\n<p>A 0.5 scale will mean that you expect your throughput to be twice lower, 2.0 means twice higher throughput. In the example above, we expect the throughput to decrease by 30% so we set the scale factor to 0.7. The simulation now tells us that if we have a scope of 10 tasks and we initiate our project on Dec 1st, there is an 85% chance of delivering on Jan 7th.<\/p>\n<p>A word of caution here! Use the scale factor as a last resort and only if you don&#8217;t have the data to work out your scenario. If you do and it represents your current setup, by all means, use that data instead.<\/p>\n<div class=\"cf-14869-area-45492\"><\/div>\n<p>I know I\u2019ve said this many times, but I just can\u2019t emphasize it enough. If you are not maintaining a stable delivery system and if you don\u2019t take control of your management practices, even collecting the data from the very beginning of your board creation won\u2019t enable you to make reliable delivery predictions.<\/p>\n<p>If your system is unstable, the gaps between your percentiles will be huge. If you say that there is a 50% chance of delivering your project by December 10th and an 85% probability of delivering by March 30th, no one will buy that forecast.<\/p>\n<p>So, here is my best advice. Don\u2019t worry too much about the amount of data you have to collect to produce a probabilistic forecast. Instead, focus on stabilizing your delivery system. The more stable your system is, the more predictable it becomes.<\/p>\n<p>Think about how the workflow that is generating that data performs? The fact is, if your delivery system is unstable, regardless of the method you use, your predictions will be unreliable. And even having more data at your disposal won\u2019t enable you to come up with an accurate delivery commitment.<\/p>\n<p>Last but definitely not least (in fact I\u2019d argue, probably most important), don\u2019t forget to reevaluate your forecast regularly, using the data that reflects your current conditions.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/continuous-forecasting\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Continuous forecasting<\/a> is essential to make sure you are on track and you are still able to hit your targets. Reevaluating your forecast on a regular basis will enable you to adjust your course accordingly and build your reputation as a reliable service provider!<\/p>\n<div class=\"cf-14869-area-150046\"><\/div>\n<div style='text-align:left' class='yasr-auto-insert-visitor'><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There are some questions that I get asked pretty much every single day. How much data do we need to make reliable delivery predictions? What if we don&#8217;t currently have any historical data? What if we have plenty of data, but we don\u2019t trust it? How do we choose the rolling window of data to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3753,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,70],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-project-management","category-team-performance"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How Much Data Do You Need to Make Reliable Delivery Predictions? | Nave<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Let\u2019s explore the approaches to distinguishing reliable from unreliable data when making accurate delivery forecasts!\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/relevant-forecasting-data\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How Much Data Do You Need to Make Reliable Delivery Predictions? | Nave\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Let\u2019s explore the approaches to distinguishing reliable from unreliable data when making accurate delivery forecasts!\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/relevant-forecasting-data\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Nave Blog: Expert tips and guidelines for agile teams\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/getnave\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/NaveHQ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-18T07:00:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-03-17T17:15:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1999\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"946\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sonya Siderova\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@https:\/\/twitter.com\/NaveHQ\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@getnave\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Sonya Siderova\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/relevant-forecasting-data\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/relevant-forecasting-data\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Sonya Siderova\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/d758aa37dbe33f3696219f81bc52a5ea\"},\"headline\":\"How Much Data Do You Need to Make Reliable Delivery Predictions?\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-11-18T07:00:12+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-03-17T17:15:02+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/relevant-forecasting-data\/\"},\"wordCount\":1225,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/relevant-forecasting-data\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/relevant-forecasting-data.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Project Management\",\"Team Performance\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/relevant-forecasting-data\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/relevant-forecasting-data\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/relevant-forecasting-data\/\",\"name\":\"How Much Data Do You Need to Make Reliable Delivery Predictions? 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