{"id":7844,"date":"2026-07-09T12:31:19","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T10:31:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/?p=7844"},"modified":"2026-07-09T12:31:19","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T10:31:19","slug":"commit-to-a-delivery-date","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/commit-to-a-delivery-date\/","title":{"rendered":"When Leadership Asks &#8220;When Will It Be Done?&#8221;, Here&#8217;s the Answer That Ends the Negotiation"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"cf-14869-area-150045\"><\/div>\n<p>If you coach teams or manage delivery, you already know the moment I mean. Someone senior asks when the work will be done. A date comes with it, pushed across the table with no context behind it. You know the true answer is uncertain, and you know &#8220;it depends&#8221; is not an answer you&#8217;re allowed to give. So you start negotiating.<\/p>\n<p>I get why. Pushing back on the person who signs the checks feels expensive. They name a date, you counter with a safer one, and whatever number wins, the team walks out committed to a guess. I&#8217;ve been in that spot more times than I can count, and I&#8217;ve watched a lot of good coaches get stuck there too.<\/p>\n<p>Let me walk you through that one moment, start to finish, so you never have to negotiate it again.<\/p>\n<h2>Why the Negotiated Date Always Loses<\/h2>\n<p>Look at what you&#8217;re actually arguing about. The date on the table is built on effort: how long the work will take once someone is sitting down and doing it. Everyone in the conversation is estimating effort, and effort was never the problem.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the part that gets missed. The waiting time in a workflow usually represents anything between 60% and 95% of delivery time. The work sits in queues, between handoffs, behind a blocker, waiting for someone to make a decision. So a perfect effort estimate still only covers the small slice of an item&#8217;s life where someone is working on it, and says nothing about the much larger slice where the delay actually lives. Effort time does not equate to delivery time. That&#8217;s why the dates keep failing, no matter how experienced the team is or how carefully you negotiated.<\/p>\n<p>And when the date fails, nobody blames the estimate. Leadership pushes harder, the team gets squeezed, and you&#8217;re back in the middle again. The negotiation was lost before it started, because both sides were arguing over a number neither of them could know.<\/p>\n<h2>The Answer That Ends the Negotiation<\/h2>\n<p>Stop bringing an estimate. Bring the system&#8217;s own record instead.<\/p>\n<p>Pull the last 20 to 30 items a team finished and open a cycle time scatterplot. Every completed item is a dot, placed at how many days it actually took, start to finish. Now mark the 85th percentile: the line that 85 of every 100 items came in under.<\/p>\n<p>That line is your answer. In the chart below it sits at 8 days, so the sentence you bring to the meeting becomes this. Based on our last 30 finished items, there&#8217;s an 85% chance this is done within 8 days. If you need more certainty than that, I&#8217;ll commit at the 95% line instead, and that&#8217;s 13 days.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/cycle-time-scatterplot-85th-percentile-nave.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-7848\" src=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/cycle-time-scatterplot-85th-percentile-nave.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1710\" height=\"979\" srcset=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/cycle-time-scatterplot-85th-percentile-nave.jpg 1710w, https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/cycle-time-scatterplot-85th-percentile-nave-768x440.jpg 768w, https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/cycle-time-scatterplot-85th-percentile-nave-1536x879.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/cycle-time-scatterplot-85th-percentile-nave-700x401.jpg 700w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1710px) 100vw, 1710px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<em>A cycle time scatterplot. Each dot is one finished item, placed at the number of days it took. The 85% line sits at 8 days, so 85 of every 100 items came in under 8 days. That line is the number you commit to. Learn more at <a href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">getnave.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Are we saying it will take exactly 8 days? No, we aren&#8217;t. We&#8217;re saying there&#8217;s an 85% chance it lands within 8 days, and 15 of every 100 items will take longer. You choose that risk level on purpose, and the chart shows you every level to choose from.<\/p>\n<p>Notice what happens to the original question. &#8220;When will this be done?&#8221; is not that interesting anymore, because the chart already answers it. The question now becomes how much risk you&#8217;re willing to take.<\/p>\n<p>You might be thinking your delivery is too messy for this to work, that your numbers are all over the place. That&#8217;s a fair worry, and the numbers still work. A less stable system simply shows a wider gap between the percentile lines, which means you commit within a wider range. That gap is information too. It&#8217;s the true picture of the system as it stands today, and narrowing it is the improvement work.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s what changes in the conversation. There&#8217;s nothing left to negotiate against, because the number was never your opinion. It&#8217;s what this system, with these teams and these queues, has already been delivering. No one can argue with numbers. A pushed deadline turns into a commitment backed by evidence. Executives respect that. Teams trust it, because nobody promised on their behalf what the system can&#8217;t do.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/zoranvujkov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Zoran Vujkov<\/a> has been making this move for years. A decade leading software teams, then coaching two hundred plus teams across a dozen companies, and now working with 30-plus teams at United Cloud. When teams tell him they&#8217;re doing great, he shows them the charts. Eye-opening is his word for what happens next. The charts he reaches for are Nave&#8217;s.<\/p>\n<h2>How to Build Your Own Sentence<\/h2>\n<p>Three steps, one team&#8217;s board, before your next commitment conversation.<\/p>\n<p>Pull the last 20 to 30 items that team finished. Open the cycle time scatterplot and mark the 85th percentile line. Then write the one sentence with your own numbers in it. Based on our last 30 finished items, there&#8217;s an 85% chance this is done within this many days. Keep it ready.<\/p>\n<p>Book the time for it on your calendar. If you don&#8217;t schedule it, you won&#8217;t get to it.<\/p>\n<p>And don&#8217;t take the estimates away while you&#8217;re at it. Run this sentence in parallel with whatever your organization does today, and let people see for themselves which one is easier, faster, and more reliable. The next time a date gets pushed at you, that sentence is what you say instead of a counter-offer.<\/p>\n<p>This is the layer of settled, tested delivery data we&#8217;ve spent years building at Nave. Your cycle time runs through the same validated engine on every query, your scatterplot and percentile lines are one click away, and the sentence you bring to leadership comes with numbers you can defend. You can see it at <a href=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">getnave.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"cf-14869-area-125960\"><\/div>\n<p>You were hired to improve the system, and the deadline negotiation is where you keep getting pulled into refereeing instead. Bring the system&#8217;s record, and there is nothing left to referee.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ll see you next week, same time and place for more managerial goodness. Bye for now!<\/p>\n<div class=\"cf-14869-area-150046\"><\/div>\n<div style='text-align:left' class='yasr-auto-insert-visitor'><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you coach teams or manage delivery, you already know the moment I mean. Someone senior asks when the work will be done. A date comes with it, pushed across the table with no context behind it. You know the true answer is uncertain, and you know &#8220;it depends&#8221; is not an answer you&#8217;re allowed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7846,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[69,7],"tags":[1895,1813,1892,1838,1894,1890,1815,1800,1893,1891],"class_list":["post-7844","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-process-improvement","category-project-management","tag-agile-leadership","tag-cycle-time","tag-cycle-time-scatterplot","tag-data-driven-decisions","tag-deadline-negotiation","tag-delivery-commitments","tag-delivery-management","tag-flow-metrics","tag-percentile-forecasting","tag-probabilistic-forecasting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How to Commit to a Delivery Date Without Guessing<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Stop answering &quot;when will it be done&quot; with opinion. 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Here&#039;s how to commit to a delivery date from your team&#039;s cycle time history, and defend it with evidence.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/commit-to-a-delivery-date\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Nave Blog: Expert tips and guidelines for agile teams\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/getnave\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/NaveHQ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-09T10:31:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/commit-to-a-delivery-date-illustration.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1535\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sonya Siderova\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@https:\/\/twitter.com\/NaveHQ\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@getnave\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Sonya Siderova\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/commit-to-a-delivery-date\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/commit-to-a-delivery-date\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Sonya Siderova\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/d758aa37dbe33f3696219f81bc52a5ea\"},\"headline\":\"When Leadership Asks &#8220;When Will It Be Done?&#8221;, Here&#8217;s the Answer That Ends the Negotiation\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-09T10:31:19+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/commit-to-a-delivery-date\/\"},\"wordCount\":1019,\"commentCount\":2,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/commit-to-a-delivery-date\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/commit-to-a-delivery-date-illustration.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"agile leadership\",\"cycle time\",\"cycle time scatterplot\",\"data-driven decisions\",\"deadline negotiation\",\"delivery commitments\",\"delivery management\",\"flow metrics\",\"percentile forecasting\",\"probabilistic forecasting\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Process Improvement\",\"Project Management\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/commit-to-a-delivery-date\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/commit-to-a-delivery-date\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/commit-to-a-delivery-date\/\",\"name\":\"How to Commit to a Delivery Date Without Guessing\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/commit-to-a-delivery-date\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/commit-to-a-delivery-date\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/getnave.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/commit-to-a-delivery-date-illustration.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-09T10:31:19+00:00\",\"description\":\"Stop answering \\\"when will it be done\\\" with opinion. 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